Reply to Dr. Byram Bridle
In relation to the statement: "A highly transmissible virus that is in 12 people sprinkled around the world would be capable of spreading rapidly."
[Ref to Original comment] https://viralimmunologist.substack.com/p/the-pirola-variant-of-sars-cov-2/comment/39337419
Hi Dr. Byram Bridle
Thank you for your fabulous contribution. One comment on something I've been working on and is related to your statement here. You said "A highly transmissible virus that is in 12 people sprinkled around the world would be capable of spreading rapidly." I would disagree with that. My point:
I think the basic reproduction number in epidemiology and the SIR model (susceptible (S), infectious (I) and recovered (R)) are based on superstition and they do not apply to reality, maybe only in farm animals under very stringent conditions, and even then, just as a rough approximation.
I developed the idea to some extent in one of my substack here https://agustinsanchezcobos.substack.com/p/the-misleading-and-superstitious
However I've developed further the idea on my GETTR here
https://gettr.com/post/p2jww6j832b
https://gettr.com/post/p2own5a8234
https://gettr.com/comment/c22er6a7830
https://gettr.com/comment/c21v1dr791f
I know you do not have time to click so many links, the main points are: [NOTE: I added the screenshots to show the images, which are relevant, the text has been copied/pasted from them so you can chose to read the screenshots or the text in the article. Just to clarify and to avoid redundancy.]
1)Every and all viruses have a Biological Function that is relevant to the ecosystem in which they exist. If and only if there is a loss of equilibrium within that ecosystem, they may be involved in a disease course and not necessarily as a causative agent but in association with. In any case, their genomic footprint will be ubiquitous within their ecological niche and it will manifest in very complex cycles that would be mistaken by "outbreaks" if we measure them without proper understanding. That's for sure.
2)The only way a biological structure is able to move within the ecosystem of several different species all across the globe is.. because its Foundations & Primary Vital Biological Pathways were already present, integrated and in co-evolution with the myriad of different sets of dynamic equilibrium. If some little changes were included in some lab, they cannot sustain any information transfer throughout the ecosystem and become dominant "man-made" Novel Stable Biological Structures. That is delusional. [NOTE: Even for GMOs, which cannot evolve as fast as viruses, this will be proven to be true given enough time.]
3)How a contagion event may actually happen?
*It cannot move in all directions. It is restricted by a Highly Complex Potential Landscape that is dependent on environmental and ecosystemic factors from the macro to the micro level. [NOTE: I developed this further on my substack - previous link here.]
*It cannot escape energy barriers without considerable mutations/variations of the biological structures involved, even though there will always be some non-zero steady state probability flux given that we are in non-equilibrium.
*Contagion events would be therefore restricted to the given areas based on a multiplicity of factors.
Hence... Can a Global Pandemic happen?
It is impossible. We are not a petri dish and as I said, viruses do have biological functions. They are absolutely not there just to cause illness and reproduce themselves like the absurd theory of the selfish gene would like us to believe.
CONCLUSION: Can a "novel" entity, highly contagious, move from "12 people sprinkled around the world" to the whole population of a given species and cause an outbreak... If we had better science, we would very easily be able to understand that that is impossible. If we can detect it is because it was already there, subtle variations in the genomic constellation of the so-called virus swarm are nothing more than a wave of information transfer that is needed for the function of the ecosystem. We are the ones calling that "variants", "variants of concern", "novel pathogens", "biosecury risks"... which is nothing more than our anthropocentrism applied to a field that we clearly do not understand properly due to our inner fears, superstitious mind and subconscious terror to the feeling of disease, illness and death, and the absolute need to find a culprit other than our lack of knowledge & wisdom.
If you have read all of it, thank you so much and I hope at least it gave you some perspective. Our models on epidemiology are based on superstition and they are incorrect. One day in the distant future they will be regarded as witchcraft, or worst, if we reflect upon the consequences they produce, like sacrificing animals that are otherwise healthy via the use of PCR tests, or the so-called COVID response and all the implications behind it.
Have a nice day and thank you so much again for your work. It has been very much needed during these years.